Comstock Partners, Inc.October 31, 2008
Not Insane After All!
Hi once again (I've been reading your comments for years now and have mailed you a few times) from Ireland. I'm not an investor just someone who studied economics (and then lectured it briefly) so have a real interest in the subject and I must congratulate you on your analysis over the years. In all my reading on the net you'd be in the minority who saw this coming from what I could tell (Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley, Shiller, Faber, writers at Prudentbear.com, and some Austrian economists to name the ones I came across). I never doubted what you said excluding one period and I mailed you about China and India being able to sustain the boom for like you I was confused as to why it just kept going. Anyway with hindsight there are a lot of people who claim now they saw this coming etc but that's not the case. Just for the record I think you've described it best - the Austrian bust senario head off in a inflationary direction as opposed to your cycle of deflation (though I suppose if things get so bad gold could really go higher). It must be a relief to know now that you weren't insane after all!