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Comstock Partners, Inc.
Good Column
September 08, 2008
Charlie good column. Trailing twelve months $52 is the lowest since the end of 2003, so to get to the same PE as then the S&P has to drop 200 points to 1030.. I have been looking at the S&P as a 30 now 32 month head and shoulder.1560-1230=330..subtract that from 1230 and you get 900. Sept 01 bottom 950 is the only hard bottom from current 1230 to the 2002-2003 lows.. I would be amazed at $60 earnings for 2008.Retail out here is almost ready to panic.Second big Ford dealer in 2 months announced closing today.Don't know how many furniture stores have gone out of business just since the end of June.And last month over have of the home sales were bank foreclosures. Talked to neighbor this morning on the trail. Many small businesses I know that have been doing just fine in this environment have had meetings with various banks on their letters of credit (LOC) and in each case the bank either cut back on the LOC or cut it off completely. Our son is in partnership with a $20 million process machine business. They are going gangbusters.But also fighting banks with LOC. Pretty darn obvious that the banks are cutting back.And if the profitable companies cannot finance inventory and receivables, it is going to be a long winter..And quarterly earnings are not going to be $15.


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