Gentlemen-Thank you for the refreshing analsis. Todays popular press
financial headlines read: "Unemployment claims tumble"; "Consumer confidence
surges". Then I look at the numbers and the changes are insignificant. These
headlines are followed by quotes from some investment firms' economist
claiming "the recession will be mild and short-lived". What planet are these
people on? Where is the demand going to come from? Yesterday Deere(an early
cyclical company) announces it will miss earnings forecasts this year and
next. Capacity utilization is approaching record lows ,despite record low
interest rates. Isn't it most likely that before we turn the corner on this
down cycle we will have to use up a good portion of the available capacity
before significant capital expenditures will kick-in?