Gentlemen-Thank you for the refreshing analsis. Todays popular press financial headlines read: "Unemployment claims tumble"; "Consumer confidence surges". Then I look at the numbers and the changes are insignificant. These headlines are followed by quotes from some investment firms' economist claiming "the recession will be mild and short-lived". What planet are these people on? Where is the demand going to come from? Yesterday Deere(an early cyclical company) announces it will miss earnings forecasts this year and next. Capacity utilization is approaching record lows ,despite record low interest rates. Isn't it most likely that before we turn the corner on this down cycle we will have to use up a good portion of the available capacity before significant capital expenditures will kick-in?