Newsletter - COMSTOCK IN THE NEWShttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWSen-us2017-07-27T01:40:10.122573-05:00The Great Dividehttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=16271/19/2012 12:00:00 AM<p>We live in an age of anxiety, and rightly so: Worries about the global economy are most emphatically not just in our imagination. The question is, who's going to bear the blame, come November?<br>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>The Age of Anxiety? With all due apologies to the late W.H.Send in the Magicians - By ALAN ABELSONhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=15916/21/2011 12:00:00 AM<P>It's time Stephen Sondheim wrote another carnival song, and, more specifically, a sequel to the hauntingly memorable "Send in the Clowns" from his 1973 musical, A Little Night Music, which has proved so eerily prophetic in describing this year's political scene. As a glance at the crowded roster of Republican wannabe candidates for the presidency in next year's election makes clear, the powers that be in the GOP obviously have taken quite literally Sondheim's injunction that served as the title of the song, while the Democrats already have their very own barker and no shortage of mountebanks ensconced in their big tent.Rolling Thunder By ALAN ABELSON | Barronshttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=15791/29/2011 12:00:00 AM<P>The natives are growing restless everywhere. And they're taking to the streets, boiling mad.What's the Real P/E Ratio?http://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=13845/26/2008 12:00:00 AM<P>The bearish view on earnings makes the most sense. </P><P>IF YOU WATCH OR READ OR LISTEN TO BUSINESS NEWS, you must be getting very confused about whether the stock market is undervalued or overvalued.Bear Funds Lick Chopshttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=11622/18/2005 12:00:00 AM<P><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Short-selling funds are ready to come out of hibernation. </SPAN></FONT><BR><FONT face=Arial size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Bear funds have had a rough run the past two years, as their strategy of betting against stocks has put them on the wrong side of a solid bull market.Barron's Magazine - By Alan Abelsonhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=114510/25/2004 12:00:00 AM<SPAN class=verdana12>&nbsp;<P class=verdana><B>NORMALLY, WE DON'T GIVE</B> a hoot as to who wins when one bunch of 25 millionaires takes up glove and ball against another bunch of 25 millionaires. It's like rooting for Gates against Buffett, or visa versa, when they don their knickers and face off in a game of golf.The Missing 9.4 Million Jobshttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=9946/23/2004 12:00:00 AM<FONT size=2>Although the 947,000 increase in payroll employment over the last three months may seem like a lot compared to what we were getting, it actually falls far short of what we should be seeing at this stage of a recovery.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></FONT><P class=verdana><FONT face=Verdana color=black size=2><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9.5pt; COLOR: black">Here's what we found in examining the last seven economic recoveries: In the first 30 months of the last seven cyclical expansions, employment rose by an average of 7.4% (range: 9.6% to 2.6%). This includes one cycle that peaked in 24 months with a gain of 7.4%.A Simple Calculationhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=11135/31/2003 12:00:00 AMPrice divided by earnings: What could be easier?By CHARLIE MINTER and MARTY WEINERTHE READERS OF MOST financial publications must be somewhat confused by the different P/E ratios that are used by the so-called experts on Wall Street. They read or hear a well-respected analyst or strategist eloquently making a very compelling case as to why the market is more undervalued now than almost any time in history.CNBC Interviewhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=83910/3/2002 12:00:00 AM<P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">MARTHA MCCALLUM, REPORTER:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>The Dow down about three points right now, the NASDAQ is up about eleven. But regardless of what happens today there is one mutual fund manager who believes the long-term trend, ready -- still down.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN>He’s been making money for the last three years because of that trend.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Joining us for her daily strategy session is Consuelo Mack.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Hi, Consuelo.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp;&nbsp; </SPAN><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">CONSUELO MACK, ANCHOR:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Thanks, Martha.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Well, the two portfolio managers who run the $200+ million Comstock Funds have been warning clients that the markets are over-valued for six years now.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>They were punished, betting against the market in ’97, ’98 and ’99, but since then their bearishness has paid off big time.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Their flagship, Comstock Capital Value Fund, has made money in each of the last three years, and is up forty-six percent year-to-date.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Joining me for today’s strategy session is Marty Weiner.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>He is co-portfolio manager of the two Comstock funds, and Marty it’s great to have you here.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>You have made money shorting the stock market, which is a risky strategy in the best of times, but you think it’s even riskier to be invested in the stock market still right now.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Why? Why do you think the market is so over-valued?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">MARTY WEINER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, COMSTOCK:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"> We definitely think it’s riskier to be in the market than to be out of it, or to be short right now.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>The market right now is still trading at a P/E multiple of 29 times on a trailing basis.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Selling 27 times if you take the estimate for 2002, over a period of 76 years the average P/E multiple has been about 15.5.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>So that means its way over-valued.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>You had a zone prior to the late ‘90s boom.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>It traded between 22 times on the high side, 7 times on the low side, never traded more than 22 times earnings, and you had this tremendous bubble where it burst out and traded over 40 times earnings, and even now it’s back to 29 and even that is way over-valued and we don’t think that is a bargain.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">MACK:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Now where do you think it’s heading?<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>I was looking at this chart we have up where the trough was 8.5, or the P/E was 8.5, after the ’29 crash, and in January of ’73 the trough in a bear market was a 7 P/E.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>Where do you think we’re heading as far as a P/E multiple on the S&amp;P 500 for instance?<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">WEINER:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>On the P/E multiple we think it’s headed at least back to a reasonable value, which would be between 15 and 16 times, but it’ll also over-shoot and in most bear markets you’ve gone down to 8 to12 times.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">MACK:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>So we’re talking about a level in the S&amp;P of around what?<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P><P class=MsoNormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">WEINER:</SPAN></B><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"><SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>If you look a little bit ahead, give it $35.Prospering Bears-An Interview With Barron'shttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=8099/2/2002 12:00:00 AM<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 3.2//EN"><HTML><HEAD><META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html;CHARSET=iso-8859-1"><TITLE>untitled</TITLE></HEAD><BODY><P><B><FONT SIZE="2">An Interview With Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner</FONT></B><FONT SIZE="2"> -- After deliveringheroic gains in 1987, Comstock Partners and its two funds, </FONT><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/login?URI=%2Fedition%2Fresources%2Fbb%2Ffund%2Ffbb-CPSFX.html"target="_blank"><FONT SIZE="2">Strategy</FONT></A><FONT SIZE="2"> and </FONT><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/login?URI=%2Fedition%2Fresources%2Fbb%2Ffund%2Ffbb-DRCVX.html"target="_blank"><FONT SIZE="2">Capital</FONT></A><FONT SIZE="2"> </FONT><A HREF="http://online.wsj.com/login?URI=%2Fedition%2Fresources%2Fbb%2Ffund%2Ffbb-DRCVX.html"target="_blank"><FONT SIZE="2">Value</FONT></A><FONT SIZE="2">, struggled throughout most of the 'Nineties to recapturethe winning formula that worked so well for the firm in the late 'Eighties. It was a top-down strategy that emphasizedhistorical-valuation analysis, and as practiced by Charlie, a prot&eacute;g&eacute; of Comstock co-founder andonetime Merrill Lynch strategist Stanley Salvigsen, and Marty, a former portfolio manager for Grumman Corp.'s pensionplan, it proved inadequate against the momentum that gripped stocks much of the last decade.To Growl and Bear It: They Didhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=7637/7/2002 12:00:00 AM<P>Many mutual funds recorded double-digit losses in the second quarter, with diversified domestic equity funds losing 11.3 percent of their value, on average according to Morningstar, Inc.</P><P>So it is not surprising that the top of the winners' list was crowded with so-called bear-market funds that are intended to thrive during stock market declines by using strategies like shorting stocks.How low can it go? Comstock Capital Value's Minter and Weinerhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=7686/27/2002 12:00:00 AM<P><SPAN class=t05><SPAN class=t003><FONT color=#000080 size=2><STRONG>Through one of the greatest bull markets in history, Comstock's Charlie Minter and Marty Weiner sat dumfounded while the rest of the world basked in the sweet glow of seeming success.--<SPAN class=t05><SPAN class=t003><FONT color=#000080 size=2><STRONG>YARDLEY, Pa. (CBS.MW)&nbsp; </STRONG></FONT></SPAN></SPAN></STRONG></FONT></SPAN></P><P><FONT color=#000080 size=2>The pair correctly called the bubble in the go-go market of the late '90s and started shorting stocks immediately -- the only problem was that it was three years too soon.THE FED PANICKINGhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=3984/20/2001 12:00:00 AMAn eminently Successful Analyst recently opined, "Rate Cuts will not save the stock market."Yesterday CNBC interviewed Charles Minter, analyst and Portfolio Manager of the Comstock Capital Value Fund, which has enjoyed excellent performance during the present Bear market.Per Mr.High Performance From Shorting Stockhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=3854/8/2001 12:00:00 AMThe $55 million Comstock Value Fund was one of the top-performing actively managed funds for the quarter, with a gain of 21.67 percent. The fund, started in 1987, both owns stock and shorts stock -- that is, it sells borrowed stock, hoping the price will fall.Dow Shoots Up 400 Points - Bears Snicker 'Suckers'http://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=5444/5/2001 12:00:00 AMAdditionally, I recently received an unsolicited invitation (urging) to check in with the folks at Comstock Partners, one of the most outwardly bearish mutual fund groups in existence. In an interview today, Charles Minter, co-manager of the Gabelli Comstock Partners Capital Value fund and Gabelli Comstock Partners Strategy fund, expressed a view reflecting that philosophy.Bear with it - By Martin Rothhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=4473/31/2001 12:00:00 AMComstock Partners is a fund management group that has won acclaim among investors for its reasoned online commentaries. At the site is a detailed analysis, subtitled, Enormous Public Participation Makes Bear Market Ugly.Washington Post By Carol Vinzant and Robert O'Harrhttp://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=483/23/2001 12:00:00 AMNEW YORK, March 22 -- After thudding into bear-market territory in the morning, the Dow Jones industrial average staged a dramatic comeback in the last 90 minutes of trading today."The Dow was down 300 and all of a sudden I turned around and looked at my screen and it was down 44.http://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=963http://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=965http://comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=newsletter.aspx&category=COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS&newsletterid=886