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| | What is the Real Housing Decline?
8/28/08 4:00 PM
We usually try not to depress our viewers over holidays, and before we forget-have a Happy and Safe Labor Day weekend. However, just as we did on July 3rd when we made a few predictions for the coming year, we have a topic that is too compelling for us to wait another week.
As most of you know we are extremely concerned about the housing market and the effect it will continue to have on the stock market. The figures on housing that were released this week can be taken either positively or negatively depending upon which data you believe is more accurate. There are more than 3 different indices that measure housing prices as well as other data such as foreclosures, inventories, and sales, but the three most popular are OFHEO, NAR, and Case-Shiller. Since OFHEO oversees FNM and FRE and therefore does not measure home statistics on sub-prime and jumbo mortgages, we will concentrate on NAR (National Association of Realtors) and Case-Shiller.
Earlier this week NAR released their numbers on home sales, inventory, and median prices of homes nationwide. We were surprised that many market gurus looked at the sales numbers (increase of 4.6%) as a real positive number for the stock market and could indicate a bottom in the housing market. The fact that foreclosures and forced sales made up about 40% of the sales, and inventories of homes rose to a record 4,670,000 were overlooked by many. We believe these statistics are much more important numbers than sales that were driven by forced sales. Also, the number of inventories seems to take a back seat to the number of months supply of homes (record 11.2 months), also a record. But why focus on a statistic that is based upon forced sales. If sales contract again, as we suspect, the month's supply of inventory to sales will surge.
In our opinion, the most important number of the release by the NAR was the median price of homes of $212,400 which is down 7.1% from one year ago. The very next day the Case-Shiller measure of home values showed that their housing price index fell -15.4% for the second quarter vs.[More]
| Movie I.O.U.S.A.
8/21/08 3:45 PM
We will make this very short tonight and hopefully convince you to go see the movie (documentary) I.O.U.S.A.[More]
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Correct Predictions
8/15/08
I read, with great admiration, your reports on the future downtrends of the
market. They were backed-up with strong facts and arguments and a consistent
track record of correct predictions. That being said, I was curious to see
what you would then be suggesting one should do with their money if they had
100k to invest, for example. Stay in cash? Or are there some sectors worth
investing in? Thank you.
| You Guys Saved Me A Ton Of Money
7/29/08
Hello,
The dow transports have been steadily moving upward while the dow has been
going down. Do you feel this could possibly cause the bear to be less
severe. To my understanding, a megabear usually coincides with both indexes
going down. ps.[More]
| This Makes More Sense Than Anything I Have Read
7/25/08
This makes more sense than anything I have read.
I remember when the DOW was having a tough time climbing the 1000 level back in the late 70's
and finally the beginning of the bullmarket in 1982. The short-term collaspe in 1987....and
now we sit near 11,000....we are way overdue for a major bearmarket
| Bigger Bubble than the Late 1990's
12/08/06 6:35 PM
It looks like an even bigger bubble than the late nineties to me,much more widespread and dangerous as hedge funds and derivatives have exploded.Not enough has been written about this.Perhaps you should tackle the subject.
| Another Stock Market Bubble
4/01/04 10:30 PM
Good piece today.Hard to believe that ANOTHER stock market bubble has taken place (see TASR,MAMA,etc.)!!This time,it'll REALLY get ugly.
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| Last Major Comstock Report | FEET DON'T FAIL ME NOW
Dated, but not out of date
12/10/99
The list of negative factors impacting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started
Introduction
The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of the past century.[More]
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