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  MarketCommentary
Central Bank Bubble is Similar to the Dot Com and Housing Bubbles
The Debt Built Up Over the Past 34 Years Still Haunts Us
3/04/15 3:00 PM

Comstock was criticized during the late 1990s as we continued to warn our loyal readers that the dot com bubble would eventually burst and would be written about for years to come.  In fact, we stated that Harvard would have case studies about the fundamentals of how many eyeballs were looking at the internet stocks rather than P/E ratios or even EBITDA ratios.  We were charging a substantial amount of money from our viewers throughout the 1980s and 1990s until we got so frustrated by saying the same thing over and over, we decided to stop charging for our research reports in 1999. 

The research report entitled “Analyze This” in the mid-1990s was the last report we charged for and you will be able to understand our frustration by quoting the first paragraph of it now.  “When stock market history is written the current period will be looked upon as a textbook example of the conditions that exist at a major market top, and future investors will wonder how so many did not see it at the time.  This should not be surprising since one of the hallmarks of a market top is that the majority are not aware of it, since a market top coincides with the point of maximum optimism, just as a bottom occurs at the point of maximum pessimism.”  We went on to describe just how outrageous the valuations were at the time as we pointed out the extremes of earnings, cash flow, sales, book value and dividends.

The period of time during the housing bubble in 2005, 2006, and 2007 was just about as frustrating to us as the dot com bubble.  In fact if you scroll down at the end of any of our comments you will find a box showing “archives”.  If you click on it and type in “housing”, you will see that in each and every report we warned about the housing bubble.  And now the “Central Bank Bubble” is becoming just as frustrating to us as the other two bubbles. 

We have tried to point out to our current viewers that the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates for the past 9 years.  Instead, they lowered Fed Funds rates to zero, and increased their balance sheet from $800 bn. [More]
 

Currency Wars
A Race to the Bottom
2/05/15 1:30 PM

As our viewers know, we have been sounding the alarm about the deflationary process that is playing out in the world’s equity, bond and currency markets for quite some time.   Because of the activity by central banks in major and more recently in developing countries we have described what is going on as “The Central Bank Bubble”.  

It is truly an irony that in their efforts to fight the forces of a crushing deflationary environment,   central banks have been the direct cause of one of largest inflations of financial assets in history.  This asset inflation even extends to collectibles such as art.  As we write, equities in several major markets around the world are trading at or near all-time highs while growth in those economies remains anemic.  In others, such as Japan, equities are trading near the highs of recent years with the same anemic growth.   On the fixed income front, sovereign yields in the US, Japan, and most countries in the Eurozone are trading at all-time lows.  In the latter case there is an unprecedented negative yield curve out 3-6 years for the very best credits (France and Germany).  All of this, as many currencies are falling rapidly relative to the dollar.  To paraphrase the character Marcellus from Hamlet; something is clearly rotten in the state of the currency markets!

We strongly believe that the Currency Wars, (described in our Cycle of Deflation as “competitive devaluation”) have begun. [More]
 

  COMSTOCK IN THE NEWS
The Great Divide
By Alan Abelson, Barrons
1/19/12

We live in an age of anxiety, and rightly so: Worries about the global economy are most emphatically not just in our imagination. The question is, who's going to bear the blame, come November?
  

The Age of Anxiety? With all due apologies to the late W.H. [More]
 

Send in the Magicians - By ALAN ABELSON
The economy desperately needs a shot in the arm, all the more so with the end of quantitative easing.
6/21/11

It's time Stephen Sondheim wrote another carnival song, and, more specifically, a sequel to the hauntingly memorable "Send in the Clowns" from his 1973 musical, A Little Night Music, which has proved so eerily prophetic in describing this year's political scene. As a glance at the crowded roster of Republican wannabe candidates for the presidency in next year's election makes clear, the powers that be in the GOP obviously have taken quite literally Sondheim's injunction that served as the title of the song, while the Democrats already have their very own barker and no shortage of mountebanks ensconced in their big tent. [More]
 

Charlie Minter appears on CNBC
 
Low speed stream  High speed stream 

  Last Major Comstock Report
FEET DON'T FAIL ME NOW
Dated, but not out of date
12/10/99
The list of negative factors impacting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started

Introduction

The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of the past century. [More]
 

 
  SpecialReport
INFLATION vs. DEFLATION
6/04/14

Most investors are bewildered by the fact that interest rates on the 10 year U.S. Treasury have been going down year to date from 3% to 2.5% after rising from about 1.6% to 3% last year. [More]
 

Comstock Bull / Bear Meter




  What Others Say
Financial Sanity
3/11/13
Dear Sirs, Just had to say to you thank you, thank you for your wonderful financial sanity.
 
Comment on Cycle of Deflation
2/15/13
Hello from Ireland again (i've mailed a few years over the past). I still enjoy checking your excellent site every friday morning. One comment on the cycle of deflation - you have plant closing & debt defaults happening after competitive devaluation however this, to a large degree and in Ireland anyways, seems to have come first. Maybe you could explain this? Also, I have to say that even though I think you are right and will be proven so soon enough, you tend to underestimate [having read your column for ten years now I think you underestimate by a 2-4 years] the reflationary power of Central Banks and for how long they can keep them up for. [More]
 
Cycle of Deflation theory
1/18/13
I'm sure that other regular readers of your commentary have noticed the term "beggar-thy-neighbor" showing up more and more in the press and online. It seems to validate the "cycle of deflation" theory you have posed for so long. We've been warned. Thanks.
 
Wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years
9/03/11
I would like your permission to send a copy of your 8/25/11 market commentary to them since I agree that we are in a major credit/debt contraction of hugh scale and a good deal of the asset write-downs are ahead not behind us. irrespective of your answer I want to thank you for wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years.
 
Your Message is Loud & Clear
8/25/11
Your weekly commentary plus the weekly postings on John Hussman's site should serve as required reading for anybody trying to follow this market. Your message (much more concise than Dr Hussman's, I have to say)is loud & clear.
 

Minter & Weiner Chat
click here to see the commentary

 


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