Summary--Why We Are Still Bearish
12/05/13 5:30 PM
The following comment brings together in one article the
various themes we have been writing about weekly, and emphasizes why we are
maintaining our bearish position at a time when so many bears have thrown
in the towel.
The market continues to rise solely on the perception that the
Fed’s easy money policy can hold stock prices up indefinitely. We think that this line of thinking will
prove to be no more durable than the dot-com bubble that peaked in early
2000 or the housing bubble that topped out in late 2007. In both cases the market gave back a
large proportion of the gains made during the bull market, and we believe
that will prove to be the case this time as well. When the vast majority of investors
faithfully believe in a concept, no matter how faulty it may be, momentum
takes over and the market goes up because it’s going up, ignoring all of
the obvious warnings such as high valuations, over bullishness, decreasing
earnings momentum and an underperforming economy. When reality suddenly sets in, as it
inevitably does, most investors are left holding the bag, hoping that the
market doesn’t go any lower.
Most Signs Point To A Significant Market Decline Ahead
11/21/13 6:30 PM
We would ignore all of the talk on Wall Street and in the
media about whether the stock market is in a bubble. After all, that’s just a matter of semantics,
and whatever we call it, the market is overvalued, overbought, and overly
bullish at a time when the economy is slogging along at an inadequate pace, and
depends almost solely on the prospect of continuing Quantitative Easing (QE) to
continue its upward move.
The market doesn’t have to be in a bubble in order for it
to be on the precipice of a significant decline. Of all the cyclical market peaks since 1929,
only the tops in 2000 and 2007 were looked back on as being bubbles.[More]
The Great Divide
By Alan Abelson, Barrons
We live in an age of anxiety, and rightly so: Worries about the global economy are most emphatically not just in our imagination. The question is, who's going to bear the blame, come November?
The Age of Anxiety? With all due apologies to the late W.H.[More]
Send in the Magicians - By ALAN ABELSON
The economy desperately needs a shot in the arm, all the more so with the end of quantitative easing.
It's time Stephen Sondheim wrote another carnival song, and, more specifically, a sequel to the hauntingly memorable "Send in the Clowns" from his 1973 musical, A Little Night Music, which has proved so eerily prophetic in describing this year's political scene. As a glance at the crowded roster of Republican wannabe candidates for the presidency in next year's election makes clear, the powers that be in the GOP obviously have taken quite literally Sondheim's injunction that served as the title of the song, while the Democrats already have their very own barker and no shortage of mountebanks ensconced in their big tent.[More]
| Last Major Comstock Report|
FEET DON'T FAIL ME NOW
Dated, but not out of date
The list of negative factors impacting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started
The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of the past century.[More]
Just had to say to you thank you, thank you for your wonderful financial sanity.
Comment on Cycle of Deflation
2/15/13Hello from Ireland again (i've mailed a few years over the past). I still enjoy checking your excellent site every friday morning. One comment on the cycle of deflation - you have plant closing & debt defaults happening after competitive devaluation however this, to a large degree and in Ireland anyways, seems to have come first. Maybe you could explain this?
Also, I have to say that even though I think you are right and will be proven so soon enough, you tend to underestimate [having read your column for ten years now I think you underestimate by a 2-4 years] the reflationary power of Central Banks and for how long they can keep them up for.[More]
Cycle of Deflation theory
1/18/13I'm sure that other regular readers of your commentary have noticed the term "beggar-thy-neighbor" showing up more and more in the press and online. It seems to validate the "cycle of deflation" theory you have posed for so long. We've been warned. Thanks.
Wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years
9/03/11I would like your permission to send a copy of your 8/25/11 market commentary to them since I agree that we are in a major credit/debt contraction of hugh scale and a good deal of the asset write-downs are ahead not behind us. irrespective of your answer I want to thank you for wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years.
Your Message is Loud & Clear
8/25/11Your weekly commentary plus the weekly postings on John Hussman's site should serve as required reading for anybody trying to follow this market.
Your message (much more concise than Dr Hussman's, I have to say)is loud & clear.