THE ELEPHANTS IN THE ROOM
3/01/18 6:10 AM
We have been
discussing for years how the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet from $800bn to
$4.5tn from 2009 to thru 2014, and near zero interest rates (ZIRP) have caused
all forms of mal-investment that in the
final analysis will bring down the “house of cards” that is the stock and bond
markets. But it gets even more
interesting, in terms of the central bank “insanity”. That the ECB, BOJ, and the BOE upped the ante
even more by instituting negative interest rate policies (NIRP) will prove to be even more detrimental, in the
long run, than ZIRP. (We did not include
the PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) in this, the reason being that China is not a
fully opened economy, given the fact that currency cannot flow freely across
its borders. But they take a second seat
to no one when it comes to over-leverage and debt. [More]
THE FREE LUNCH
But Don't Be Fooled Because The Check is Coming Courtesy Of The Central Banks
1/03/18 11:05 AM
So, here we
are. Stock indexes are through the roof
and making new highs almost every day.
Realized volatility is collapsing through the floor, and has never been
lower for such a protracted period. The
era of (normal) five, ten, or twenty percent corrections seem like a distant
memory of another time and place.
Interest rates remain near historical lows, with seemingly benign
duration risk in the bond market. Inflation
has all but been pronounced as “dead as a doornail”.
It was not
through brilliance in the management of our major corporations that account for
the (irrational) exuberance that the markets seem to be embracing. [More]
The Great Divide
By Alan Abelson, Barrons
We live in an age of anxiety, and rightly so: Worries about the global economy are most emphatically not just in our imagination. The question is, who's going to bear the blame, come November?
The Age of Anxiety? With all due apologies to the late W.H. [More]
Send in the Magicians - By ALAN ABELSON
The economy desperately needs a shot in the arm, all the more so with the end of quantitative easing.
It's time Stephen Sondheim wrote another carnival song, and, more specifically, a sequel to the hauntingly memorable "Send in the Clowns" from his 1973 musical, A Little Night Music, which has proved so eerily prophetic in describing this year's political scene. As a glance at the crowded roster of Republican wannabe candidates for the presidency in next year's election makes clear, the powers that be in the GOP obviously have taken quite literally Sondheim's injunction that served as the title of the song, while the Democrats already have their very own barker and no shortage of mountebanks ensconced in their big tent. [More]
What's the Real P/E Ratio?
The bearish view on earnings makes the most sense.
IF YOU WATCH OR READ OR LISTEN TO BUSINESS NEWS, you must be getting very confused about whether the stock market is undervalued or overvalued. [More]
The Missing 9.4 Million Jobs
Barrons Magazine (Market Watch)
6/23/04Although the 947,000 increase in payroll employment over the last three months may seem like a lot compared to what we were getting, it actually falls far short of what we should be seeing at this stage of a recovery.
Here's what we found in examining the last seven economic recoveries: In the first 30 months of the last seven cyclical expansions, employment rose by an average of 7.4% (range: 9.6% to 2.6%). This includes one cycle that peaked in 24 months with a gain of 7.4%. [More]
A Simple Calculation
5/31/03Price divided by earnings: What could be easier?
By CHARLIE MINTER and MARTY WEINER
THE READERS OF MOST financial publications must be somewhat confused by the different P/E ratios that are used by the so-called experts on Wall Street. They read or hear a well-respected analyst or strategist eloquently making a very compelling case as to why the market is more undervalued now than almost any time in history. [More]
| Last Major Comstock Report|
FEET DON'T FAIL ME NOW
Dated, but not out of date
The list of negative factors impacting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started
The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of the past century. [More]
Difference between Past Fed Tightening and Now
1/04/16 8:30 AM
A reporter asked us about the prospects of the stock market if the Fed raises the Fed Funds rate, since at the time there was a strong possibility of a rise in the rate to around 25 basis points. We explained that, in our opinion, the ending of the ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and increase in Fed Funds will be a significant negative for the stock market. [More]
Just had to say to you thank you, thank you for your wonderful financial sanity.
Comment on Cycle of Deflation
2/15/13Hello from Ireland again (i've mailed a few years over the past). I still enjoy checking your excellent site every friday morning. One comment on the cycle of deflation - you have plant closing & debt defaults happening after competitive devaluation however this, to a large degree and in Ireland anyways, seems to have come first. Maybe you could explain this?
Also, I have to say that even though I think you are right and will be proven so soon enough, you tend to underestimate [having read your column for ten years now I think you underestimate by a 2-4 years] the reflationary power of Central Banks and for how long they can keep them up for. [More]
Cycle of Deflation theory
1/18/13I'm sure that other regular readers of your commentary have noticed the term "beggar-thy-neighbor" showing up more and more in the press and online. It seems to validate the "cycle of deflation" theory you have posed for so long. We've been warned. Thanks.
Wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years
9/03/11I would like your permission to send a copy of your 8/25/11 market commentary to them since I agree that we are in a major credit/debt contraction of hugh scale and a good deal of the asset write-downs are ahead not behind us. irrespective of your answer I want to thank you for wonderful analysis that I have been reading for many years.
Your Message is Loud & Clear
8/25/11Your weekly commentary plus the weekly postings on John Hussman's site should serve as required reading for anybody trying to follow this market.
Your message (much more concise than Dr Hussman's, I have to say)is loud & clear.