As we watch the market climb to new highs in the face of lackluster and deteriorating fundamentals, we have the feeling that we’ve seen this movie before in 2000 and 2007, when we were one of very few voices of caution in the wilderness. A rise that was fueled by the perception of never-ending Fed liquidity injections has now morphed into a trend that is feeding on itself as investors are afraid of missing out on further gains. As a result, any news, no matter how negative, is being given a positive spin in the media and on “the street”.
For instance, take last Friday’s payroll employment report for April, which touched off a euphoric rise in stocks. While that was a positive surprise over the expected rise of 140,000 jobs, the reported increase of 165,000 for the month was nothing to write home about.[More]