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It's All About Debt
2/04/10 8:30 PM
As we have expected ever since the emergence of the Dubai crisis, sovereign debt problems have come to the fore as a major threat to the global economy and financial system. The catalyst was renewed fears that Greece and Portugal will not be able to fund their deficits without a bail-out following the failure of a Portuguese bond auction. As a result world stock markets plunged, Southern European bond yields soared, the Euro plunged and the spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) hit record highs for a number of countries.
In our comment on December 10, entitled "Why the Stock Market Looks Vulnerable", we expressed our concern that Dubai's debt problems indicated that other sovereign nations were exposed as well to the severe decline in asset values that left debtors with too little cash flow to service their debts. We particularly singled out the vulnerability of Greece, Portugal and Spain and the problems involved with their being members of the European Union (EU). In another comment on January 21st, entitled "Banks Are Not the Only Problem", we cited a list of negative factors facing the market and then added that "The Greek problem may end up having even more market impact than any of the above".[More]
| Please See Our Latest "Special Report" 1/25/10
There Will be No Comment Today
1/28/10 12:00 PM
To read our current Special Report dated 1/25/10, please click on "Special Reports" in the blue box to the left.
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| Last Major Comstock Report |
FEET DON'T FAIL ME NOW
Dated, but not out of date
12/10/99
The list of negative factors impacting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started
Introduction
The list of negative factors affecting the stock market has now become so numerous that it is highly likely that a severe bear market has already started. We begin with the fact that, as measured by earnings and dividends, this is by far the most overvalued market of the past century.[More]
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I love your work and the honest commentary you provide.
2/02/10
First of all, I love your work and the honest commentary you provide.
My question is this: Of the $40 trillion in Individual and corporate debt, I was wondering if any of it is double counted? For example, all home mortgage debt is counted properly to individuals. However, most of that debt is securitized and issued as debt again by a sponsoring institution. The same for some commercial real estate, credit card receivables, auto loans, etc.[More]
| I have read your updates for years.
1/28/10
Dear Comstock Partners,
I have read your weekly (prior daily) market updates for years. I find them to be outstanding for their thoroughness, easy to understand and accurate assessments. I just read your special report "Total Debt Relative to GDP" This is a great report. I agree 200% with your assessment.[More]
| "The Total Debt to GDP Trumps Everything Else" was superb.
1/27/10
"The Total Debt Relative to GDP Trumps Everything Else" was superb. Henry Van der Eb, portfolio manager for the Mathers Fund (whom you probably know, given that you are both part of the Gabelli group) got me stewing about the consequences of excessive total U.S. debt more than ten years ago; and he still pounds the subject in every quarterly report to stockholders. For most of that time I presumed excessive federal debt would lead to serious inflation, perhaps even hyper-inflation as described in Harry Figgie's book, Bankruptcy 1995.[More]
| According to the White House today the recession is over!!!
8/07/09
According to the White House today the recession is over!!! Generally, when corporations want to determine consumers' desires or support for a product they conduct focus groups, which are ultimately skewed by the setting. We've found simple surveys standing in the grocery store with a cart just asking a shopper gives a much better response. Metrics are the new word for figuring out a trend.[More]
| Dear Friends
2/13/09
Dear Friends, I have been religiously following your website and information since I retired in 2005. Thank God that you guys were here and I was able to protect my savings in 401k. Based on your web site postings which I have been checking just about everyday, I have been in safe govt treasuries through Vanguard since 2005 and have had moderate growth but most of all no losses in capital. You guys just made so much sense to me and I just wanted to thank you for running the web site.[More]
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